If one accepts (and I’m afraid one has to) that Cameron,
having buggered up the last election, couldn’t hold a referendum during this 5-year
Coalition Government, his speech today and its commitment to a manifesto pledge
for an In/Out vote in 2017 is as good as one could possibly have hoped for, for
all sorts of reasons.
First, he now has the priceless First Mover Status on a
referendum. This will help the Conservatives enormously in the next general
election.
Secondly, it marginalises the LibDems, who deserve no other
fate, being unutterable charlatans and rank opportunists.
Third, it should eradicate the UKIP vote in Labour/Tory
marginals. There can be no justification for them handing Labour a seat that
would otherwise be Conservative.
Fourth, an Out vote is favourite in 2017. The behaviour of Rumpy
Pumpy, Barroso, and Eurotrash politicians too numerous to mention shows no
flicker of friendliness, humour, or tolerance towards Britain (and certainly no
thanks for this nation’s sacrifices for a Free Europe over the past 100 years).
The British people know this, and the majority feel repulsed by it. They know
that the World is big, and mostly not European. Our grandchildren will trade
with more Chinese, Vietnamese, Brazilians and Mexicans than with the EU.
Fifth, if I am wrong and the British vote to stay In in
2017, it will be because Cameron has convinced them that his negotiations have
borne fruit. This will not be achieved by the cancellation of a few pettifogging
regulations to do with fruit, or child carseats, or the correct colour for
roadsigns. By 2017, we will be somewhat reluctant hosts to about half a million
Romanians and Bulgarians, and there will be heightened national resentment that
a virtually bankrupt government is pouring billions into our creaking hospitals,
schools and social housing for an ethnic minority that has absolutely no links
of empire or alliance with Britain, and has contributed almost nothing in tax
to justify our largesse. If Cameron can’t get control back of our borders, he
will fail in his quest to keep us In. We are not in the mood to sell our country
for a few shiny beads and a relaxation in the Working Time Directive.
Sixth, if Dave wins the election, but loses the referendum,
he will have to resign as PM. Now is not the time to be horrid to the poor fellow,
having delivered us the promise we wanted, but it must be said that he is a wet
blanket and needs to be replaced by a proper Tory. Our country will remain
close to crisis for many years ahead and it needs, by God it needs, a bit of
sound, no-nonsense management.
Of course, this may not win him the election, and we all
know that crypto-Marxists like Miliband and Balls like nothing better than the
comradeship and approbation of like-minded socialists in Europe. Things will
get a whole heap worse under them.
So, expect a proper bounce for Dave and the Tories. Any improvement
in the economy in the next eighteen months, and we get our vote. Oh happy day.