I'm inclined to believe what Our (former) Man in Damascus has to say on the matter:
All this spin reflects a fundamental failure to understand the nature
of the situation in Syria. Bashar al-Assad is a figurehead, not a dictator on
the pattern of Saddam Hussein, or even his father. If he were to leave for any
reason he would be replaced in a twinkling of an eye by some Alawite general.
What some outside observers fail to realise is that the Alawites, having run a
very tough police state for 40 years, simply cannot afford to lose power. If
they were to do so, they believe that they and their families would be
massacred. They may well be right.
On the other side, the rebels fear that, if the present regime were
to be left in place, then the secret police would be after them in a flash and
they too would suffer a terrible fate. Quite apart from this mutual fear there
is, regrettably, now a deep seated desire for revenge by many of those on both
sides who have suffered so terribly.
Let those who still think Western intervention could be remotely
helpful in this dreadful situation make their case on Monday evening. I suspect
that they will struggle to do so.
Sir Andrew Green is the former Ambassador to Syria. He will be
speaking at the next Spectator Debate on 24 June, debating the motion
‘Assad is a war criminal. The West must intervene in
Syria’ with Malcolm Rifkind, Douglas Murray, Dr Halla Diyab and more. Click here to book
tickets.
2 comments:
Not very Catholic of me I'm afraid but I'm more than happy for us to aid and watch both sides kill each other for another few years, win win.
Idiot politicians never listen to the FCO Arabists who do know a thing or two about the middle east. That's how we got into the Iraq business in the first place.
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