The Coming Schism

Readers of this blog might be surprised to hear that the louche and idle author of it was, until late January, a deputy chairman of his constituency's Conservative Association and Chairman of Trustees for the capital that underpins it (some loyal old bugger left the association a six figure sum a few years back, which hardly ever happens).

When I resigned, I did so with the Conservatives on average nine points in the lead and with a respectable working majority to look forward to. GDP from the last quarter of 2009 had been announced at +0.1%, which sounded like that Classic Brownism "a 0% increase", whilst America had bounced back at a fecund +5.7%. The 'news' that Brown was a foul-mouthed bastard who shouted and pushed and threw things was due to dominate the weekend papers. All in all, it seemed unlikely that Labour would start pegging back the Tory lead. Cameron, even if by default, would win. I was not a rat leaving a sinking ship, I felt. More like a rat on a floating ship who discovered that the other rats had started to pong a bit, and was happy to take his chance elsewhere. To git while the gitting was good, as an American cowboy would have it.

So I was asked why on earth I was resigning. Did I not want the Tories to win? Would victory not taste better if I continued to spend some of my spare time working for such an end? Was not the overthrow of the Brown Terror the one thing that simply had to happen?

Let me say at once that a Tory failure at the election would be a total fucking disaster. If you think that the way the country looks right now is bad, just wait until after another Labour election win, even if only as the largest party in a hung parliament. Sterling, interest rates, enterprise, job creation, tax receipts, public services all depend upon getting the Socialist incompetents out of power.

I resigned because, when I look at the Tory position on the size of the State, economic policy, Europe, climate science, the NHS, immigration, public sector pay and conditions, schools - well, I agree with only one of them. The last one, since you ask, and only then with the very big qualification that they made a monstrous fuckup over grammar schools and they are lucky to have Michael Gove riding to their rescue with a credible policy that champions the rights of parents and pupils and reduces the political grip of central state bureacrats.

I can just about vote for the Conservatives with a clothes peg on my nose, and doubtless I will do so in a few weeks' time. But I won't work for it. The frustration is simply too great. I would much rather offer criticism and praise from the sidelines, according to mood. It is not a good thing to be contemptuous of any organisation whilst an officer (however lowly) within it.

And whilst on the subject of contempt, how better to describe the attitude of Cameron towards his grassroot supporters? He takes them completely for granted, speaks over their heads, and thanks them not one bit for keeping the sandwiches coming and for re-filling the teapots during the dark years. He makes no attempt at all to stop them flirting with UKIP, let alone the BNP. Those millions who voted for Thatcher (even for Major in 92), but who NO LONGER VOTE - what of them? Does he try to encourage them back with a re-statement of the basic principles that transformed this country for the better after the disaster of late-70s Labour? He does not. He chases liberal votes, and does so brazenly. Some deluded folk think that he is a Tory in Liberals' clothing and will shed the cloak after an election win. Well he won't. He is a metropolitan liberal, on the left of the Tory party. The truth is, Cameron and his top table have much more in common with rootless West London professionals than they do with dentists or ditch-diggers or retired Colonels at the end of their drives in their rural constituencies. He is simply not an attractive choice for many of the old Conservative types who no longer vote. It is left to us (ex) Deputy Chairmen in the sticks to rally the troops. No longer.

The poll lead has more than halved, has all but disappeared in the Sunday Times this morning and there have been enough polls this week to suggest that this is not a freak. Momentum, unbelievably, is with Labour. Failure to beat this lot, as unpleasant, dishonest and incompetent as they are, would be an epic achievement. But don't let the Tories tell you that it is very difficult to unseat a ruling party, that the odds are stacked against them because of flaws in the Boundary Commission, that the message is clear but hasn't been put across well enough, yadda yadda....

The reason is that they are shit. They have pursued an idiotic strategy of liberal appeasement. No one who wanted a liberal, left-of-centre government ever voted Conservative. Why would they?

What this country needs is an identifiable right-of-centre political party. One that is not confused about where it stands on matters of sovereignty, democracy, the size of government, educational elitism, personal responsibility, sentencing and prisons, policing, immigration, the erosion of individual liberty.

No such party exists. But if, as seems increasingly likely, the utter pricks at the top of the Tory Party miss the open goal, then I will bet you a pint of Wadworth's 6X and a pork pie that such a party will be created. And it will transpire because the Right half of the Tory party and UKIP will create something that will immediately appeal to 30% of British voters and might, if well run, be at 35% for a 2014 election. If it appeals to those who have not voted since 1992, then make it 40%.

And I'll be a deputy chairman of a constituency association for the new party whenever anyone asks. And I won't resent a moment of spare time I give to it.